Current Trends in Enrollment

A turning point occurred in Fall 2023: U.S. postsecondary enrollment rose 2.5% (an increase of 476,522 students), breaking a decade-long decline. Four-year institutions experienced the largest growth (+3.4%), with community colleges and shorter-term programs also seeing modest increases. This rebound, however, doesn’t offset pre‑pandemic losses. Total enrollment still trails 2019 levels by around 5% . Projections suggest a long-term rise: undergraduate totals are expected to grow 9% from 2021 to 2031 .

Demographic Highlights

• Membership of underrepresented groups is expanding: Hispanic/Latinx and multi‑race student enrollment each jumped ~6.8% between Fall 2022 and 2023 .

• International graduate enrollment rose 8% in 2023–24; undergrad int’l numbers dipped slightly .

• The non-traditional undergraduate segment (e.g., working adults, caregivers, delayed enrollees) continues to grow, reaffirming its critical role in shaping programming and support.

Institutional Impact

• Stratification is on the rise: Flagship public universities are thriving (e.g., University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign saw a 36% enrollment boost since 2010), while smaller regional and rural colleges face steep declines, even closures, with over 40 institutions shutting since 2020.

• Financial sustainability: States like New York’s SUNY system are carefully trimming low‑enrollment programs, improving fiscal health while cautiously expanding enrollment through retention.

Emerging Strategies & Technologies

• Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM): Institutions are adopting SEM frameworks that integrate recruitment, retention, academic planning, and student lifecycle support.

• Graduate Enrollment Management (GEM): Graduate divisions are investing in CRM systems, AI-enhanced outreach, and personalized communication. 78% of students emphasize personalization, and 61% cite timeliness in enrollment decisions.

Quick Tips for Enrollment Professionals

• Use demographically-targeted strategies: Leverage data showing strong growth among Hispanic/Latinx, multi-race, first-generation, and low-income applicants.

• Prioritize digital visibility for stealth applicants: Nearly 40% of prospects research programs without direct interaction ensure SEO, content marketing, and digital ads are robust.

• Invest in retention via SEM/GEM systems: CRM platforms, AI chatbots, proactive advising, and financial aid interventions are proven drivers of persistence and completion.

• Plan for demographic shifts: With high school graduate counts expected to decline post-2025, expand early college, dual enrollment, and non-traditional adult learner initiatives to diversify enrollment channels.

Resources & Links for Professionals

• Deloitte 2025 Higher Education Trends: Covers financial challenges and enrollment strategy.

• NCES Fall 2023 Enrollment Report: Official data snapshot detailing shifts in student populations.

• Chronicle of Higher Education – Trends Report 2025: In-depth analysis of sector-wide trends .

• Acuity Insights Admissions Report: 2025 findings on AI usage, personalization, and admissions strategies.

• NAGAP & AACRAO GEM frameworks: Tools and best practices for managing graduate enrollment.